Alberta Energy Market Report – Week of September 28 – October 4, 2026

Week in one line: Alberta’s wholesale power price averaged $39.87/MWh for September 28 – October 4 against $25.60/MWh the week before — up 56% — and almost all of the increase came from one day: on Thursday, October 1, seven hours cleared $100/MWh and the week peaked at $403.41/MWh. Get Energy’s variable electricity rate fell 1.63¢ to 4.90¢/kWh as the late-August spike left its 30-day window, now 1.67¢ below the one-year fixed rate.

Reporting week: September 28 – October 4, 2026. Published October 5, 2026. Wholesale data from AESO; gas reference pricing from the Government of Alberta; forward prices from TC Energy; retail rates from Get Energy’s live rate sheet.

Wholesale power: the week in numbers

The 30-day rolling average for the period ending October 4 is $30.17/MWh, against $30.10/MWh a week earlier — effectively unchanged. The days that rolled out of the window (August 29 – September 4) cost about as much in total as the seven days that rolled in, so the expensive Thursday was offset by early-September hours leaving the average.

What actually happened

One day made the week. Daily averages: $32.04 Monday, $14.51 Tuesday, $42.35 Wednesday, $93.32 Thursday, $29.98 Friday, $41.83 Saturday and $25.08 Sunday. All seven hours above $100/MWh fell on Thursday, October 1: two in the morning ramp (HE8 at $200.90 and HE9 at $155.04) and five in the evening, from HE17 through HE21, peaking at $403.41/MWh in hour ending 19. Take Thursday out and the other six days averaged about $31/MWh — higher than last week, but not by much.

The floor rose again. Only 5 hours settled at or near zero, down from 7 last week and 20 the week before that, and the median climbed 36% to $28.24/MWh. Near-zero hours in Alberta generally track wind output, so a thinning floor usually means less wind; we did not pull generation data to confirm it this week. With fewer free hours to pull the average down, a single tight day showed up clearly in the weekly number.

Average load rose 135 MW to 10,001 MW — the first week above 10,000 MW since early September, consistent with cooler weather — while peak load came in 255 MW lower at 10,622 MW. Thursday’s prices did not coincide with a new demand peak: load in the $100-plus hours ran between about 10,200 and 10,350 MW, below the week’s high. That points to supply conditions rather than demand setting the price that day; we did not pull outage or wind data to identify the cause.

Natural gas

The Government of Alberta’s natural gas reference price has run $2.46/GJ in January, $1.95 in February, $1.69 in March, $1.28 in April, $1.16 in May, $1.37 in June and $1.35 in July. July is still the most recent month published; no new month has been added since the September 21 edition. The series sits well under the $2.71/GJ that closed 2025.

October is the first heating-season month. TC Energy’s September 1 table put AECO gas at $1.17/GJ for October and $1.61/GJ for the balance of 2026. Last year the reference price went from $0.95 in October to $2.04 in November and $2.71 in December, so the next two months are the ones that matter most for a household gas bill.

Where retail rates sit

The variable electricity rate fell 1.63¢ to 4.90¢/kWh, the largest weekly move since these editions began. It is a trailing 30-day average calculated as of September 28, so it now covers roughly the last days of August through September 27. The August 24–26 price spike has dropped out of it entirely, and September was a cheap month. Thursday’s $403 hour is not in this number yet; it will be in next week’s calculation.

Fixed electricity rates did not move. Variable now sits 1.67¢ below the one-year fixed rate of 6.57¢/kWh, after being level with it last week and above it in mid-September. The gas 30-day discount moving average dropped 93 cents to $2.65/GJ, $1.12 below the $3.77/GJ one-year fixed gas rate; that is also the largest weekly change in the gas figure we have recorded, and we report it as published on the rate sheet. The default Rate of Last Resort remains 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh — about 35% above our three-year fixed rate and more than double our current variable rate — and it does not move with the pool price.

Forward market and load growth

TC Energy had not published an October Alberta power market update as of October 5, so the most recent forward table is still the September edition, indicative as of September 1, 2026: 2027 flat (7×24) at $40.66/MWh, 2028 at $55.81/MWh and 2029 at $71.46/MWh, with AECO gas at $1.93, $2.40 and $2.46/GJ. Those figures are unchanged from last week’s edition; we will update them when the next table is out.

These are the prices at which term power could be bought on that date, not a forecast. The shape is the story: 2027 is priced near what the pool has actually done this year, and 2028 and 2029 sit well above it, in the years large new load is expected to start connecting. A September 22 Bennett Jones commentary cited AESO figures putting requested data-centre load above 20,600 MW, against a provincial peak demand of about 13,000 MW. Requests are not approvals; the AESO’s interim limit for new large load remains far below that figure.

Regulatory and market news

• Alberta stops changing its clocks, and the AESO is updating its rules to match. Under the new Official Time Act, Alberta stays on “Alberta Time” (UTC−6, what used to be Mountain Daylight Time) year-round; clocks will not fall back on November 1, 2026. On September 25 the AESO posted administrative amendments replacing “Mountain Time” references in its ISO rules and reliability standards with “Alberta Time” and removing a daylight-saving adjustment, with feedback due October 9. No effect on rates; for anyone reading hourly pool-price data, there will be no repeated fall-back hour this year.
• REM ISO Rules engagement: first stakeholder session is October 6. The AESO’s window 1 session on proposed revisions to the Restructured Energy Market rules is set for October 6, with written feedback due October 16 and AESO responses expected by November 30. This is market-participant rule work and does not change residential rates.
• Data-centre siting moved to the municipal level this week. Arizona-based Walton Global Investments applied to amend the Edmonton Energy and Technology Park area structure plan to enable a large data-centre campus in northeast Edmonton; the city is taking online feedback until October 25, ahead of a council public hearing. A motion asking for a report on regulating and restricting large-scale data centres is set for Edmonton council on October 6. Separately, the County of Grande Prairie issued a development permit for an AI data centre near Sexsmith and said it will change how similar projects are reviewed after residents raised concerns. These are land-use steps, not grid connections.
• Rate of Last Resort. Unchanged at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh and fixed through December 31, 2026. Rates for the 2027–2028 term must be filed at least 30 days before January 1, 2027. The natural gas Default Rate Tariff is approved monthly by the AUC; the October 2026 disposition for Direct Energy Regulated Services (31080-D01-2026) has been issued.
• We found no new AUC decision affecting residential electricity rates this week.

What this means if your contract is up

For the first time in these editions the variable rate is well below every fixed option: 4.90¢/kWh variable against 6.57¢/kWh for one year, 7.97¢/kWh for two and 8.87¢/kWh for three. That gap reflects a cheap September. The variable rate trails the market by up to a month, so it tells you what prices were, not what the winter will bring — and this week’s Thursday is a reminder that a single tight day can add several dollars to a weekly average.

The trade-off is the same as always, with different numbers. Variable has been the lower rate this month and moves with the market; fixed costs more today and does not move for its term. On gas the floating rate at $2.65/GJ is $1.12 below the $3.77/GJ fixed rate as the heating season starts, and gas prices have historically climbed from October into December.

The default Rate of Last Resort at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh sits above every other option in the table, and its next two-year term will be filed this fall.

We publish this report every Monday. The reasoning behind the fixed-or-variable decision is set out in fixed vs variable electricity rates in Alberta, and current rates are always on our rates page.

Sources

• AESO market and system reporting — hourly pool price and Alberta internal load, September 5 – October 4, 2026. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• Government of Alberta — Alberta natural gas reference price — monthly $/GJ series through July 2026. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• TC Energy — Alberta power market update, September 2026 — forward price table indicative as of September 1, 2026; no October update on the newsletter index as of retrieval. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• Bennett Jones — Data Centre West 2026: Alberta’s Digital Infrastructure Moment Has Arrived (September 22, 2026) — requested data-centre load per AESO. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• Government of Alberta — Alberta’s new time system (ABT) and AESO Engage — Alberta Time Change Administrative Amendments (letter of notice September 25, 2026). Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• AESO Engage — Restructured Energy Market (REM) ISO Rules — window 1 dates. Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• Taproot Edmonton — Data centre campus proposed in northeast Edmonton (September 30, 2026) and Edmonton Sun — Grande Prairie issues data centre development permit near Sexsmith (September 30, 2026). Retrieved October 5, 2026.
• Utilities Consumer Advocate — default rates — Rate of Last Resort 12.01–12.06¢/kWh to December 31, 2026; and AUC Disposition 31080-D01-2026 (DERS DRT, October 2026). Retrieved October 5, 2026.

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Alberta Energy Market Report – Week of September 21-27, 2026

Week in one line: Alberta’s wholesale power price averaged $25.60/MWh for September 21 – 27 against $38.57/MWh the week before — down 34% — and for the second time this month not one hour cleared $100/MWh. Get Energy’s variable electricity rate eased to 6.53¢/kWh, now level with the one-year fixed rate, and the forward curve for 2027–2029 moved lower in TC Energy’s September update.

Reporting week: September 21 – 27, 2026. Published September 28, 2026. Wholesale data from AESO; gas reference pricing from the Government of Alberta; forward prices from TC Energy; retail rates from Get Energy’s live rate sheet.

Wholesale power: the week in numbers

The 30-day rolling average for the period ending September 27 is $30.10/MWh, down from $42.50/MWh a week earlier. That is the biggest weekly drop in the rolling average since these editions began, and most of it is arithmetic: the expensive August 24–26 stretch has now left the 30-day window entirely.

What actually happened

A narrow week. Daily averages: $9.46 Monday, $20.97 Tuesday, $39.72 Wednesday, $48.12 Thursday, $18.83 Friday, $13.97 Saturday and $28.11 Sunday. The most expensive day of the week, Thursday, came in below last week’s Tuesday. The single highest hour was $95.12/MWh at hour ending 7 on Thursday morning — the morning ramp rather than the evening one, and less than a seventh of last week’s peak.

The week had a different shape from the one before. Last week was a low floor punctured by a few very expensive evening hours. This week the spikes disappeared but the floor rose: only 7 hours settled at or near zero, against 20 the week before. Near-zero hours in Alberta generally track wind output, so the drop points to a less windy week; we did not pull generation data to confirm that. The result was prices bunched in a tighter band, with the median down 15% and the average down 34% — the gap between the two narrowed from about $14 to under $5.

Demand rose. Average load was up 132 MW to 9,866 MW and peak load up 364 MW to 10,877 MW, consistent with cooler mornings and evenings arriving. Higher load and a cheaper week together say supply was comfortable: when enough low-cost units are available through the ramps, the pool does not need the expensive ones.

Natural gas

The Government of Alberta’s natural gas reference price has run $2.46/GJ in January, $1.95 in February, $1.69 in March, $1.28 in April, $1.16 in May, $1.37 in June and $1.35 in July. July is still the most recent month published; no new month has been added since last week’s edition. The series sits well under the $2.71/GJ that closed 2025.

The forward market points the same way for now. TC Energy’s September 1 table put AECO gas at $1.17/GJ for October and $1.61/GJ for the balance of 2026. Heating season is the test: gas demand rises through October and November, and last year the reference price went from $0.95 in October to $2.04 in November. For a household budget the winter months are the ones that count.

Where retail rates sit

The variable electricity rate fell 0.23¢ to 6.53¢/kWh. It is a trailing 30-day average calculated as of September 21, so it now includes last week’s $715 hour but has dropped the late-August spike days, and the second effect was larger. This week’s cheaper prices are not in it yet.

Fixed electricity rates did not move. Variable is now 0.04¢ below the one-year fixed rate of 6.57¢/kWh — effectively level — after sitting 0.49¢ and then 0.19¢ above it in the last two editions. The gas 30-day discount moving average slipped 3 cents to $3.58/GJ, 19 cents below the $3.77/GJ one-year fixed gas rate. The default Rate of Last Resort remains 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh, about 35% above our three-year fixed rate and more than 80% above our variable and one-year fixed rates, and it does not move with the pool price.

Forward market and load growth

TC Energy published its September Alberta power market update, with forward prices indicative as of September 1, 2026. It put the 2027 flat (7×24) forward at $40.66/MWh, 2028 at $55.81/MWh and 2029 at $71.46/MWh. In the August update (indicative August 4) the same years were $45.02, $64.29 and $80.39/MWh, so each year was quoted between about $4 and $9/MWh lower a month later. AECO gas forwards were $1.93, $2.40 and $2.46/GJ for 2027–2029. The same update reports August 2026 settled at $45.71/MWh, with the top 10% of hours contributing 56% of the monthly average.

These are the prices at which term power could be bought on that date, not a forecast of where the pool will settle. The shape has not changed: 2027 is priced close to what the market has actually been doing this year, and 2028 and 2029 sit well above it — the years in which large industrial and data-centre load is expected to begin connecting. The Government of Alberta’s data-centre site lists roughly 19,565 MW of data-centre load on the AESO’s large-load connection list as of July 30, 2026; those are requests, not approvals.

Regulatory and market news

• AESO opened engagement on revisions to the REM ISO Rules and ISO Manuals. On September 21 the AESO launched the stakeholder engagement for revisions to the Restructured Energy Market rules approved in March, and posted the first window of proposed changes, covering nine rules including pool participant registration, real-time market offers and bids, and the 30-minute ramping reserve. A stakeholder session is set for October 6, written feedback is due October 16, and the AESO expects to respond by November 30. This is market-participant rule work; it does not change residential rates.
• Capital Power says the Meta data centre has lifted large-customer interest in Alberta. In comments reported September 22–24, Capital Power’s chief executive said Meta’s Sturgeon County data centre has made the province more attractive to other large U.S. technology companies. Capital Power has a long-term agreement, announced in July, to supply 250 MW to the site from the second half of 2028 until the dedicated Greenlight gas plant, led by Pembina Pipeline, is expected online in 2030. Company commentary, not a new project, but it is the kind of load the 2028–29 forwards are pricing.
• Rate of Last Resort. Unchanged at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh and fixed through December 31, 2026. Rates for the January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2028 term must be filed at least 30 days before January 1, 2027 under the providers’ approved energy price setting plans, which puts the filing deadline in early December. The natural gas default, the Default Rate Tariff, is approved monthly by the AUC; the October 2026 disposition for Direct Energy Regulated Services was issued September 23.
• No new AUC decision affecting residential electricity rates was issued this week.

What this means if your contract is up

Two editions ago the variable rate was half a cent above the one-year fixed rate. Today the two are within a twentieth of a cent of each other. With the rates this close, choosing between fixed and variable is mostly a question of how much month-to-month movement you are comfortable with on your bill, not which one is cheaper.

The arithmetic as it stands: variable at 6.53¢/kWh, one-year fixed at 6.57¢/kWh, two-year fixed at 7.97¢/kWh, three-year fixed at 8.87¢/kWh. Keep in mind the variable rate trails the market by up to a month, so it reflects prices already paid rather than the winter ahead. On gas the floating rate at $3.58/GJ remains below the $3.77/GJ fixed rate, with the heating season still ahead.

The one option that is hard to justify on any of these numbers is the default Rate of Last Resort at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh. It is set by regulation rather than by the market, sits above every other option in the table, and its next two-year term will be filed this fall.

We publish this report every Monday. The reasoning behind the fixed-or-variable decision is set out in fixed vs variable electricity rates in Alberta, and current rates are always on our rates page.

Sources

• AESO market and system reporting — hourly pool price and Alberta internal load, August 29 – September 27, 2026. Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• Government of Alberta — Alberta natural gas reference price — monthly $/GJ series through July 2026. Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• TC Energy — Alberta power market update, September 2026 — forward price table indicative as of September 1, 2026, and August 2026 market recap; compared with the August 2026 update (indicative August 4). Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• AESO Engage — Restructured Energy Market (REM) ISO Rules — September 21, 2026 engagement launch, window 1 dates. Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• EnergyNow — Meta data center boosts Alberta appeal for hyperscalers, Capital Power says (September 23, 2026), and Capital Power — 250 MW agreement with Meta (July 2026). Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• Government of Alberta — AI data centres by the numbers — large-load connection list figure as of July 30, 2026. Retrieved September 28, 2026.
• Utilities Consumer Advocate — default rates — Rate of Last Resort 12.01–12.06¢/kWh to December 31, 2026; Default Rate Tariff approved monthly. Retrieved September 28, 2026.

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Alberta Energy Market Report – Week of September 14-20, 2026

Week in one line: Alberta’s wholesale power price averaged $38.57/MWh for September 14 – 20 against $17.12/MWh the week before — up 125% — with a single Thursday evening hour at $715.78/MWh doing most of the damage. Get Energy’s variable electricity rate fell to 6.76¢/kWh as the late-August spike finally left its calculation window. Natural gas stays historically cheap.

Reporting week: September 14 – 20, 2026. Published September 21, 2026. Wholesale data from AESO; gas reference pricing from the Government of Alberta; retail rates from Get Energy’s live rate sheet.

Wholesale power: the week in numbers

The 30-day rolling average for the period ending September 20 is $42.50/MWh, down from $45.24/MWh a week earlier. It keeps falling even though this week was dearer than last, because the three late-August days that averaged $164, $122 and $113/MWh are now dropping out of the window.

What actually happened

An average built out of a handful of hours. Daily averages: $13.94 Monday, $55.99 Tuesday, $28.18 Wednesday, $96.24 Thursday, $45.81 Friday, $16.56 Saturday and $13.27 Sunday. Monday, Saturday and Sunday all settled below $17/MWh, which is where the whole of last week sat. Thursday alone came in at more than five times the Monday figure.

Thursday September 17 is the week. Hour ending 20 — the evening ramp, after sunset and while households are still drawing — cleared at $715.78/MWh. Six hours across the week settled above $100/MWh, against none last week, and they are concentrated in Tuesday and Thursday evenings. Strip those hours out and the week looks like the previous one.

The floor did not move against us: 20 hours settled at or near zero, three more than last week. Wind was generous for long stretches. That is the shape Alberta produces regularly — plenty of near-free hours, a small number of very expensive ones, and an average that sits far above the median. This week the median hour was $24.46/MWh while the average was $38.57/MWh; the gap between those two numbers is the price of the evening ramp.

Demand was essentially flat week over week at 9,734 MW average, with peak load down 227 MW to 10,513 MW. Nothing in the load data explains the price move. It was a supply-side week: when the cheap marginal units are all running, prices sit in the teens, and when a few are not, the evening ramp prices in the hundreds.

Natural gas

The Government of Alberta’s natural gas reference price has run $2.46/GJ in January, $1.95 in February, $1.69 in March, $1.28 in April, $1.16 in May, $1.37 in June and $1.35 in July — July is the most recent month published, newly added since last week’s edition. The series remains well under the $2.71/GJ that closed 2025.

Injection season is ending and heating load is still effectively nil. Cheap gas is why the floor of the market is so low: gas-fired units set the marginal price in most hours, so inexpensive fuel plus full availability produces the $13 days seen at both ends of this week. For a household budget the number that matters is the winter strip, not the September print.

Where retail rates sit

The variable electricity rate fell 0.30¢ to 6.76¢/kWh. It is a trailing 30-day average calculated as of September 14, so what came out of the window was the tail of the expensive late-August stretch; what went in was the cheap first half of September. This week’s $715 hour is not in that number yet and will not be until the next calculations.

Fixed electricity rates did not move. Variable now sits 0.19¢ above the one-year fixed rate of 6.57¢/kWh, having been 0.49¢ above it last week. The gas 30-day discount moving average fell another 10 cents to $3.61/GJ, 16 cents below the $3.77/GJ one-year fixed gas rate — on gas, the floating product is still the cheaper of the two. The default Rate of Last Resort remains 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh, about 35% above our three-year fixed rate and roughly 78% above our current variable rate, and it does not move with the pool price at all.

Forward market and load growth

TC Energy’s Alberta power market update, indicative as of August 4, 2026, put the 2027 flat (7×24) forward at $45.02/MWh, 2028 at $64.29/MWh and 2029 at $80.39/MWh, with AECO gas forwards of $2.17, $2.53 and $2.55/GJ across the same years. No September edition of that update had been published as of this morning, so these remain the most recent figures we can cite. Read the curve for what it is: the price at which a term deal can be struck today, not a forecast of what the pool will settle at.

The shape of it is the part worth noting. The near years are priced close to where the market has actually been trading this year, while 2028 and 2029 are priced materially higher — the period in which large industrial and data-centre load is expected to start drawing in volume. Alberta’s weather-corrected load has been growing a few hundred megawatts a year before any of that connects, and the AESO’s large-load connection queue is many times the size of its initial connection cap.

Regulatory and market news

• AESO held its REM implementation and market readiness session on September 17. The session covered scope, approach and schedule for market-participant readiness ahead of the Restructured Energy Market, and the AESO has posted the presentation and recording on its engagement site. The REM ISO Rules were approved by regulation in March 2026 and participant system work continues. Nothing in the transition changes residential rates today.
• Feedback closed September 19 on connection requirements for transmission-connected data centres. The AESO’s engagement page lists September 19 as the stakeholder feedback deadline for the technical requirements data centres must meet to connect to the transmission system, with a consolidated response to follow. The requirements themselves are on the grid side, but they determine how quickly large loads can connect — and therefore when new demand starts competing with households for the same supply.
• Rate of Last Resort. Unchanged at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh and fixed through December 31, 2026. Rates for the January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2028 term are set under the providers’ approved energy price setting plans and must be filed at least 30 days before January 1, 2027. That filing is still the item to watch this fall. The natural gas default, the Default Rate Tariff, continues to be approved monthly by the AUC and is separate from the electricity default.
• No new AUC decision affecting residential rates was issued this week beyond routine proceedings. The Commission’s August rejection of the 1,400 MW gas plant proposed for a co-located data centre at Olds (Decision 30732-D01-2026) remains the most recent decision with consumer relevance, and the AUC has said it does not set a precedent for other applications.

What this means if your contract is up

This week is a clean illustration of why one week’s wholesale average is a poor guide to a household bill. Six hours out of 168 more than doubled the weekly average, while the variable retail rate — averaging a completely different 30-day window — went down. The two numbers moved in opposite directions in the same seven days, and both were correct.

The arithmetic as it stands: variable at 6.76¢/kWh, one-year fixed at 6.57¢/kWh, two-year fixed at 7.97¢/kWh, three-year fixed at 8.87¢/kWh. The one-year fixed rate is currently below the trailing variable average, which is unusual; the gap is small enough either way that the real question is how much month-to-month movement you want on the bill rather than which is cheaper today. On gas the position is reversed: the floating rate at $3.61/GJ sits below the $3.77/GJ fixed rate.

The one position that is hard to justify on any of these numbers is the default Rate of Last Resort at 12.01 to 12.06¢/kWh, which is close to double our variable and one-year fixed rates and well above every other option in the table, and is set by regulation rather than by the market.

We publish this report every Monday. The reasoning behind the fixed-or-variable decision is set out in fixed vs variable electricity rates in Alberta, and current rates are always on our rates page.

Sources

• AESO market and system reporting — hourly pool price and Alberta internal load, August 22 – September 20, 2026. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
• Government of Alberta — Alberta natural gas reference price — monthly $/GJ series through July 2026. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
• TC Energy — Alberta power market update — forward price table indicative as of August 4, 2026. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
• AESO Engage — REM market participant readiness — September 17, 2026 stakeholder session materials. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
• AESO Engage — connection requirements for transmission-connected data centres — engagement timeline, feedback due September 19. Retrieved September 21, 2026.
• Utilities Consumer Advocate — default rates — Rate of Last Resort 12.01–12.06¢/kWh to December 31, 2026; Default Rate Tariff approved monthly. Retrieved September 21, 2026.

Get Energy is a competitive retailer in Alberta, a tradename of Utility Network & Partners Inc.

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Data Centres Are Coming Onto Alberta’s Grid. Should You Lock Your Rate?

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